The AI 泡 may be about to burst and no one will be 免疫の from the 財政上の fallout, 令状s RUTH SUNDERLAND as Nvidia 株 急落(する),激減(する)
Listening to a 長,指導者 (n)役員/(a)執行力のある 配達する a 法人組織の/企業の 報告(する)/憶測 on his 年4回の 収入s is not most people’s idea of a 広大な/多数の/重要な party.
Except when the company 関心d is Nvidia, the US computer 半導体素子 designer さもなければ known as The Most Important 在庫/株 on 惑星 Earth.
The accolade is no small 業績/成就 for a 商売/仕事 with an almost unpronounceable 指名する, the brainchild of a man who once worked as a dishwasher in a 急速な/放蕩な-food restaurant.
(If you are struggling to enunciate Nvidia out loud, 明らかに you should say en-VID-ia, not NER-vid-ia. It is based on the Latin word invidia, meaning envy, and was chosen because 創立者 Jensen Huang believed his 商売/仕事 would be so brilliant it would 刺激する that emotion in competitors.)
支援する to that party. It was thrown in Manhattan by a young woman 指名するd Lauren Balik, who took over a 妨げる/法廷,弁護士業 and 招待するd her fellow Nvidia nerds to watch Huang 現在の its results on TV.
長,率いる of Nvidia Jensen Huang went from 存在 a dishwasher at a Denny's diner to the 11th richest man in the world
泡s and balloons were bobbing around the 発生地 as Huang 演説(する)/住所d his 株主s.
These were not just 基準 party 従犯者s, they were symbols of the 審議 surrounding Nvidia.
In the 注目する,もくろむs of sceptics, it is at the centre of a 広大な tech 泡 on the brink of bursting.
The party did not turn out to be much of a 祝賀.
Nvidia’s market value fell by $100billion に引き続いて the results. These, although excellent by most 基準s, fell short of sky-high 期待s.
Small 投資家s in the UK are, whether they realise it or not, ひどく exposed to Nvidia’s fortunes.
Some have bought the 株 直接/まっすぐに. Others have 投資するd in 基金s that 持つ/拘留する the 在庫/株 such as Blue 鯨 Growth and the Scottish Mortgage 投資 信用.
The party 招待 sent by Lauren Balik in 予期 of Nvidia's 年4回の results
No-one, however, is 免疫の to the Nvidia 影響.
It is at the heart of the 人工的な 知能 (AI) frenzy 広範囲にわたる 塀で囲む Street and th e City.
As a bellwether for AI and with a valuation of around $3trillion, the vagaries of its 株 price have an 衝撃 on markets as a whole and therefore our 貯金 and 年金s.
Arguably, its results have become 平等に if not more important than major 経済的な 告示s by the UK or US 政府, or major central banks.
The question on everyone’s lips after the 最近の sharp 減少(する) is whether Nvidia’s gravity-反抗するing rise about to come to a screeching 停止(させる).
There are certainly 調印するs that enthusiasm for the company has been overdone.
歳入s rose by 122 per cent, compared with the previous year, to $30billion, ahead of its own 予測s.
In any 肉親,親類d of normal world, that would be seen as a 広大な/多数の/重要な 結果.
But on 惑星 Nvidia, hopes were so high that these 人物/姿/数字s were 見解(をとる)d as an anti-最高潮.
株 prices are, of course, about the 未来 not the past, giving as they do a 手段 of what 投資家s believe to be the prospects for a 商売/仕事.
A profile of Ms Balik who asked fellow Nvidia nerds to watch Jensen Huang's 告示 together on TV?
‘投資家s want more, more and more when it comes to Nvidia,’ says Dan Coatsworth of 投資 壇・綱領・公約 AJ Bell.
‘にもかかわらず the company’s best 成果/努力s to talk up the 適切な時期s once again around AI, it wasn’t enough to 妨げる a 株 price sell-off.’
To put that sell-off into 視野, 株 are up nearly 150 per cent in the past year.
The company has plenty of fans who appear supremely sanguine about the 最近の 後退, 見解(をとる)ing it as barely a blip.
基金 経営者/支配人 Stephen Yiu, who has 投資するd 10 per cent of his Blue 鯨 Growth 基金 in Nvidia, told 投資 website Citywire that the results ‘are a 非,不,無-event'.
‘Our take is that nothing has changed in regard to the 安心させるing comments from Jensen Huang that 2025 is going to be a 重要な year for its data centre 商売/仕事,’ he said.
The rise of Nvidia to its 現在の status has been astounding.
It first 名簿(に載せる)/表(にあげる)d on the public markets on the eve of the Millennium and since then has become the success story of the 21st century so far.
Over the past five years, its 株 have risen by nearly 2,800 per cent.
The 推論する/理由 Yiu and others have piled into Nvidia can be summed up in two words: 人工的な 知能 (AI).
Over the past five years, Jensen Huang's foray into AI has seen his company's 株? rise by? nearly 2,800 per cent
The company, which in its 早期に days 焦点(を合わせる)d on ビデオ games, makes graphics 過程ing 部隊s (GPUs) - wafer-thin 回路・連盟 boards with a powerful microchip at the 核心.
Nvidia’s GPUs are to be 設立する in smart cars, robots and data centres. Crucially, they are behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot.
It is 井戸/弁護士席 ahead of 競争相手 半導体素子 designers and 製造者s such as 前進するd Micro 装置s and Intel.
One 推論する/理由 for the frosty 歓迎会 given to its 人物/姿/数字s is worry over 延期するs and 付加 costs with its new Blackwell AI 半導体素子s.
These are to follow on from the 現在の 世代 of 半導体素子s, known as Hopper.
Huang tried to 演説(する)/住所 関心s over the Blackwell 半導体素子, though the 急落(する),激減(する) in the 株 示すs he did not 完全に 後継する.
‘The functionality of Blackwell is wonderful, we are 見本ing it all over the world,’ he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
He 追加するd that Nvidia has started 容積/容量 生産/産物 and will begin shipping the 半導体素子s to 顧客s in the fourth 4半期/4分の1 of this year.
‘We will have billions of dollars of Blackwell 歳入s,’ he said, 追加するing that they are ‘much more energy efficient’ than previous 世代s. p>
‘We are one of the fastest growing tech companies in history,’ he said.
That is undoubtedly true, but it is also becoming harder and harder for Nvidia to 持続する the pace.
As Dan Coatsworth says, this has ‘誘発する/引き起こすd alarm bells that the AI gravy train might be losing 力/強力にする.’
Nvidia’s fans believe there is still plenty of 可能性のある. Companies need more and more 過程ing 能力, more 貯蔵 and more 力/強力にする to carry out more コンビナート/複合体 仕事s with AI.
‘We’re going to have a 広大な/多数の/重要な next year 同様に,’ Huang 宣言するd.
He pointed to the 範囲 for Nvidia to 利益 from ‘君主 AI’, as countries 含むing Japan, India, Canada and the UK look to build their AI 組織/基盤/下部構造 to 上げる their economies.
‘A country’s 数字表示式の data is part of their natural 資源 like oil,’ he said. ‘They want to 収穫 it and turn it into their 数字表示式の 知能,’ he said.
But as Ben Barringer, tech 分析家 at 仲買人 Quilter Cheviot points out: ‘Nvidia has grown to a point where there is little room for error, and any 調印する of slowing or normalisation of growth will have an outsized 影響 on the 株 price.’
The general 見解(をとる) is that Nvidia 株 were ‘定価つきの for perfection’ and that even the faintest slip of the halo would knock them 支援する.
The 返答 of some in the City and on 塀で囲む Street is: who cares?
John Higgins, 長,指導者 markets 経済学者 at 資本/首都 経済的なs says: ‘So what if Nvidia was 定価つきの for perfection? That doesn’t mean the party is over or that the AI 泡 is bursting.’
True 信奉者s argue Nvidia is way ahead of 競争相手s as the only company 現在/一般に able to produce the GPUs that 力/強力にする AI.
But there is plenty that could go wrong. To 明言する/公表する the obvious, Nvidia’s 未来 depends on the 普及した 採択 of AI, so if that does not go as 推定する/予想するd, the 落ちる-out could be 汚い.
Even if it does, Nvidia could 直面する challenges to its 支配的な position from competitors, and from regulators. The US 司法省 is 調査/捜査するing (民事の)告訴s from 競争相手s over 申し立てられた/疑わしい anti-競争の激しい behaviour.
It is also 攻撃を受けやすい to disruption in its 供給(する) chain: its high-end AI 半導体素子s are produced in Taiwan, which is under 脅し from a belligerent Beijing.
AI will 消費する 抱擁する 量s of energy which may be difficult to 供給(する) and likely to attract the 怒らせる of green vigilantes.
Underlying the rise of Nvidia is the 近づく-全世界の/万国共通の 見解(をとる) in market and 商売/仕事 circles that generative AI, which can create high 質 content, will transform companies, 産業s and whole societies.
But what if it doesn’t?
Companies will spend $1trillion in the next few years on 半導体素子s, data centres and other AI 組織/基盤/下部構造, によれば 投資 bank Goldman Sachs.
Some of Goldman’s 専門家s wonder whether that enormous spending binge will ever 支払う/賃金 off.
Jim Covello, the 長,率いる of 全世界の 公正,普通株主権 研究, says it is ‘certainly debatable’ that AI will ever ‘配達する on the 約束 many people are excited about today'.
‘The いっそう少なく debatable point is that AI 科学(工学)技術 is exceptionally expensive and to 正当化する those costs it must be able to solve コンビナート/複合体 problems which it isn’t designed to do.’
He 追加するs: ‘Many people seem to believe that AI will be the most important 科学技術の 発明 of their lifetime but I don’t agree, given the extent to which the internet, cellphones and laptops have fundamentally transformed our daily lives.’
Covello says he struggles to believe AI will ever be able to acquire the cognitive 推論する/理由ing to 取って代わる human interactions. Human 存在s 追加する the most value to コンビナート/複合体 仕事s, he argues, because we understand nuance in a way a computer never can.
A 慰安ing thought in the man v machine 審議, but what might it mean for 投資家s?
Even arch-doubter Covello thinks the spending on AI will continue 関わりなく his scepticism.
投資家s should, he says, stay in Nvidia for the time 存在, and in 公共事業(料金)/有用性s and other companies 伴う/関わるd in the 拡大 of 力/強力にする grids, which will be needed to 供給(する) the 抱擁する 量s of energy needed to run AI 科学(工学)技術.
Nvidia’s 株 price and the AI goldrush in general may look like a 泡 - and that Manhattan party is the 肉親,親類d of thing that has 用心深い 投資家s looking for safer 港/避難所s.
But let’s give Jim Covello the last word for now. ‘One of the most important lessons I have learned over the past three 10年間s is that 泡s can take a long time to burst.’